CRAIG MARTIN

Episode 40 of JIB/JAB-The Laws of War Podcast featured a discussion with Harold Koh on his new book, The National Security Constitution in the 21st Century, as well as the Trump Administration and its implications for international law. It was not only fascinating and insightful, but actually uplifting and inspiring too. The podcast ended the year with close to 55,000 plays since it began in the summer of 2020, and has been listened to in over 120 countries.

Published: Trump’s Endgame for the War in Ukraine, Just Security, Dec. 17, 2024 (with Michael Kelly) – In this short essay Mike Kelly and I explore how incoming President Trump might deal with the war in Ukraine, and in particular what the implications of his transactional and self-interested approach might have for Ukrainian interests, America’s alliances, and the international rule of law itself. Here is just the first two paragraphs:

Donald Trump’s election as 47th president of the United States brings the endgame for the war in Ukraine into sharper focus. Based on comments since his first term, Trump’s mindset remains highly transactional on foreign policy in general and on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in particular. This is a war he pledged to end quickly, prompting Ukraine’s president Volodymir Zelenskyy to acknowledge that it will conclude in 2025. Trump’s modus operandi has been to deal with the other “strongest” person in the room and often ignore other stakeholders. This means any peace negotiation is likely to jump the tracks and occur bilaterally between Trump and Vladimir Putin, a dynamic Putin has endorsed. While his recent meetings with Zelenskyy in New York and Paris might suggest the possibility of daylight between himself and Putin on Ukraine, Trump may simply be pre-negotiation positioning. Nevertheless, this bit of the shifting landscape bears watching.

Taking these bargaining dynamics into account, broad outlines emerge of what Trump needs in order to declare victory?always of paramount importance to him. In this article we plot how such bargains might play out, how they could provide Trump and Putin with significant political gains, but also how they could leave very much impoverished the vital interests of Ukraine, the strength of America’s alliances, and the international rule of law itself. While not an exhaustive list, key leverage points in the negotiations can be delineated as follows:

(link above for the full essay!)

It was a pleasure to be a guest at Deakin Univ. Law School’s Centre for Law as Protection, presenting my paper Geoengineering Wars and Atmospheric Governance at a seminar workshop, and participating in the Centre’s year-end symposium, discussing challenges confronting international law. Huge thanks to Shiri Krebs for the invitation! Melbourne, Australia, Dec. 10 and 12, 2024.

Moderating a panel at ABILA (American Branch – International Law Association) annual conference on the President as a Threat to National Security, a discussion of Harold Koh’s new book The National Security Constitution in the 21st Century, with Harold Koh, Rebecca Ingber, and Karen Greenberg, at Fordham Law School, New York, Oct. 25, 2024.